Wednesday, March 16, 2011

NHL moving slowly on concussions is not so bad


The NHL announced action plan to reduce concussions has received a pretty negative response from fans. Maybe not all fans but certainly a good number expect a total ban on hits to the head. I think that it is inevitable but I can understand why the NHL is not ready to go there quite yet. Changes to the game always have unexpected consequences. In fact the increase in concussions can be directly linked to the crack down on obstruction. Despite the publicity around a small number of dumb acts of violence, most had injuries in hockey are occurring as a result of accidental collisions which increased as the game got faster.

I like what the NHL is doing and I believe there will be more changes coming. Action is certainly needed after over 10% of NHL players have suffered some type of concussion this season. Everyone can see there is a problem but I work in policy development and analysis and have seen the impact of knee jerk reaction to events. Unless you are going to totally ban hits to the head, then rule changes aren’t needed. I work in a regulatory environment and the knee jerk reaction to a compliance issues seems to always be adding more rules. But if you were to carefully examine the problem you might find that enforcement was weak or there was an information gap requiring some additional education. The NHL added penalties for staged accidents but they still occur and no one is penalized. If you were to review the rule book you will find many infractions that are not being called properly including charging and boarding. Though I would like to see the no touch icing introduced to make the game safer.

Here is my take on the 5 initiatives announced by the NHL this week.

1. Equipment Changes

The NHL says they are committed to making equipment safer. I’ve commented in the past how shoulder pads and elbow pads are like armour. Their construction goes beyond protecting the player and can easily be used as a weapon when hitting opponents. Softer pads would still protect and injure fewer people. We shall see if the league can actually bring about real change. Their battle to make goalie equipment smaller has not been an overwhelming success. Perhaps in this case there will be less resistance.

2. New Concussion Protocol

The NHL wants team physicians examining players with suspected head injuries in the dressing room instead of by a trainer on the bench with a coach standing over them. This is a big step forward in preventing players from doing further damage by playing after being concussed. No more Mikhail Grabovski waiving off the trainer and going back after taking two shots to the head. But don’t expect managers and coaches to quietly go along. Wait until a key player gets dinged in the head in the third period of a close game in March. If he seems to be alright team officials will begin questioning pulling players out of important games as a precaution. Fans who today are demanding that the NHL do something about concussions will do an about face when their team loses with a star sitting it out. I would also like to see players who have been punched in the head during a fight examined as well. Maybe the NHL’s stats might look different (ie, only 8% of concussion occur as a result of fights) if fighters were examined by doctors instead of being sent to the penalty box.

3. Make Rinks Safer

The NHL will be hiring a safety engineer to make rinks safer. There is no easier change for the NHL. It does not require a change in human behaviour. It just takes money. But this may just be a half measure if they only look at the glass and provide extra padding on stanchions. You need to consider the boards, the ice surface, lighting etc.

4. Tougher Penalties

The NHL will look at more disciplinary action for repeat offenders. This is the one initiative that is destined to create the most controversy. People will continue to criticize the league for being too soft, for being inconsistent, for discriminating in favour or against certain players, etc. I find the GMs are trying to have it both ways on irresponsible players. They know who they are; they offer them contracts and then complain about their behaviour. Most people immediately saw the hypocrisy of Mario Lemieux when he criticized the violence in the game at the same he had Matt Cooke on his payroll. When suspensions hit 10 games some players will take notice. When they hit 20 games many more will notice. At 40 games you will get everyone’s attention.

5. Study the Problem Further

The NHL announced that were forming a committee made up of Steve Yzerman, Rob Blake, Joe Nieuwendyk and Brendan Shanahan to work with the Players Association and report back the board. I think some people see this aspect as an attempt to sweep the issue under the carpet. I think that 30 GMs sitting around a room for a day is not the proper structure for problem solving. I am pleased to see that the committee is made up of young, bright executives and not the older crowd (Brian Burke, Glen Sather) who may be too entrenched in the status quo. The game has changed so much you need to involve individuals who have played in the post-lockout NHL. I would have liked to have seen someone selected for the committee who lost considerable time to a head injury. I don’t recall any of these four falling into that category. I hope they speak to current and former players who have had serious concussions. Their recommendations need to balance what is good for the game with how these injuries impact on quality of life away from the rink and post-hockey careers.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

What happened to James Reimer?

A couple of weeks ago I posted about how many goalies have spectacular numbers when they are first called up to the NHL only to drop off shortly after. I speculated that it will likely happen to James Reimer. It appears that this is the case based on the numbers below. His stats looked real good in January and February but have tailed off considerably in March.

January 4-3-0, 2.31 GAA, .932 SV%
February 6-1-3, 2.36 GAA, .926 SV%
March 3-3-1, 3.67 GAA, .892 SV%

So why does this happen? In most cases it’s quite simple; it takes a certain amount of time for the shooters to figure out a new goalie. Is he weak on the blocker side? Does he over commit? Is he too far back in the crease? How is he in handling the puck outside the goal crease? The same process takes place in major league baseball. A young pitcher comes to the majors for the first time and seems to be unhittable. But after a month everyone starts hitting him. We are all predictable and your opponents start to figure you out. So to compensate you need to adjust to your opponent’s adjustments and so on and so on. For instance I noticed Lightning shooters were going high on Reimer. Maybe they noticed something while reviewing game tapes?

Although in Reimer’s case there are additional factors in play. He has played in 14 straight games so when his coach suggests he looked tired, he may be right. He wasn’t even playing this much on the Marlies. Another reason for his drop off in March has to do with the Leaf defense. At the trading deadline Brian Burke shipped out two pretty good defensemen who were both playing over 20 minute per game. Those minutes are being eaten up by the remaining defensemen with mixed results. As a result, in many games this month the Leafs are being outshot. Weak defense means more turnovers, more shots against, more scoring chances for opponents and more goals against. Burke will need to address what to do about Brett Lebda and Mike Komisarek over the summer.

So which is Reimer – the January/February stud or the very ordinary March goalie? We will need to wait until next season to find out for sure.

Monday, March 14, 2011

43 Years of Maple Leaf Frustration: 2006-07 Season

Coming off their disappointing season the Maple Leafs once retooled by dipping into the free agent market. They added Pavel Kubina, Michael Peca, and Hal Gill to go along with new Goalie Andrew Raycroft. The trade has to be one of the worst in Maple Leaf history and put GM John Ferguson Jr. into a hole that he was never able to dig himself out of. Raycroft set a team record with 37 wins but had a mediocre 2.99 GAA and .894 SAV%.

For most of the first three months the Maple Leafs played mediocre hockey, as they headed into the New Year with a 17-17-6 record. In January the Leafs started playing better despite losing Peca for the season with a knee injury. The Leafs actually stayed in playoff contention until the very end of the season as they held destiny in their own hands in the final week playing the New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens in the final two games. However, a 5-2 loss to the Islanders put the Leafs on the brink as they needed a win over the Habs and an Islanders loss to get in. Led by three assists from Mats Sundin the Leafs would do their part beating the Canadiens 6-5 to knock their long time rivals out of contention. However, the Islanders would win their final game of the season against the Devils. New Jersey who had started Martin Brodeur in 18 straight games sat him out in the final game of the season. The Islanders took the last playoff spot form the Leafs who finished 40-31-11 out of the playoffs by one point.

Ironically, as the Leafs stumbled from one goalie to another, the 2006-07 season saw they draft an unknown goalie from Manitoba in the 3rd round. He was James Reimer.


Maple Leafs are for sale


Maple Leaf fans are likely pleased to hear that Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is putting its share of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment up for sale. The expected price is $1.3 - $1.6 billion will mean that the next owner will more likely be a corporate entity than an individual.

The Maple Leafs have had a history of weak ownership though in the sports franchise marketplace there are likely more bad owners than good ones. In the case of the Leafs, over the past 40 years we have seen the eccentric Harold Ballard who essentially destroyed the brand with his inept interference. He was succeeded by Steve Stavros who tried to right the organization but developed personal financial problems that forced him to abandon the rebuild.

Then along came OTPP which took control of the Leafs in 2003. The OTPP have been neither a good or bad owner although many fans have vilified OTPP and accused them of not spending money to produce a winner. Certainly MLSE was purchased as an investment and not because the OTPP was interested in sports team ownership so the bottom line has been paramount. But they also understand that success in the playoffs also generates profits. After all, players are fully paid at the end of the season so playoff revenue becomes highly profitable. So the OTPP understands the value of playoff revenue from a business perspective if not from a fan’s perspective.

However, the value of the OTPP portfolio is about $100 billion so the Leafs represent only 1% of their investments. Plan executives have shown little interest in investing time in running this asset. Richard Peddie was hired to manage the business and act as a buffer for ownership. OTPP executives have rarely been seen in public. There are no media interviews, no meet and greet with fans and season ticket-holders and players do not hang out with the owners.

This is the reality of sports ownership today. Often you have a wealthy kook interfering with management or a passionless corporate owner looking at the bottom line. Take the example the new Buffalo Sabre owner Terry Pegula who is a passionate Sabre fan. Will he be able to step back from being a fan and allow management to make proper hockey and business decisions? We shall soon see.

So while Leaf and Raptor fans look forward to new ownership, that doesn’t mean a turn for the better. The asking price and the potential profits of MLSE will attract a certain type of owner. There is a good chance that the new owner will be similar to the existing one. The sports conglomerate might attract potential owners willing to overpay slightly because the sports franchises can be aligned to enhance existing business. That would include Rogers Communications and Bell Globemedia. The track record of Rogers as owner of the Blue Jays has not been that encouraging. In the case of the Jays they have indicated that they would spend money to support a winner but have not spent money to create a winner.

So I am also pleased to see Teachers sell their share of MLSE but I don’t see any reason to be optimistic quite yet.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Maple Leaf playoff prospects are razor thin


The Leafs remain 6 points behind both Buffalo and the New York Rangers who hold 7th and 8th place in the East. Six points doesn't seem like such a big spread except if you only have 13 games remaining in your schedule. If the magic number remains 90 points to secure 8th place (it may be more) then the Leafs need a whopping winning percentage of 76.9%. In contrast the Sabres only need to win 53.8% of the games and the Rangers 58.3%.

The Leaf schedule for the remainder of the season includes: Tampa Bay, @Carolina, @Florida, Boston, @Minnesota, @Colorado, @Detroit, Buffalo, @Boston, @Ottawa, Washington, @New Jersey, Montreal. That works out to 7 teams in a playoff spot and 6 outside the playoffs.

Buffalo plays 5 teams in a playoff spot and 8 teams currently out of the playoffs. The Rangers Will play 6 teams in a playoff spot and 6 teams out of the playoffs. Ninth place Carolina has the toughest schedule with 8 teams to play in the playoffs and only 5 out of the playoffs. Atlanta who are tied with the Leafs also face 8 playoff teams and 5 non-playoff teams. The super hot Devils are also on a playoff bubble and will face 9 playoff teams and 5 non-playoff teams.

Do you find Pierre McGuire annoying?


There’s something about Pierre McGuire that people just find grating. This is unfortunate because he clearly knows a lot about hockey and has plenty of insight into the game. But when people are hoping that errant pucks go flying into your general area, it’s a pretty clear sign you aren’t well-liked.

If you share this opinion of Pierre McGuire but aren't sure what it is that you dislike about him then read this article.

Banning head shots will protect players with their head down

Here is Kyle Wellwood skating with his head down. He takes a shoulder to shoulder hit and get knocked over but isn't injured. This is classic example of how the NHL might look after a ban on hits to the head. If Wellwood had been targeted by one of the league's many headhunters, it would have been just another statistic in the Year of the Concussion.

Kyle keep your head up!

Rick Martin dead at 59


Shocking news this morning as former Buffalo Sabres star Rick Martin has passed away. Reports suggest the 59 year old suffered a heart attack while driving a car.

Martin was a famed member of the Sabres' French Connection line in the 1970s, along side Gilbert Perreault and Rene Robert.

Martin was a prolific scoring winger for the team, registering eight seasons of 32 goals or more, including back-to-back 52-goal campaigns. A seven-time All-Star and two-time 1st Team NHLer, Martin had his No. 7 retired to the rafters in Buffalo in 1995 and is flanked by the retired numbers of his former linemates.

t was just two weeks ago at the press conference introducing Terry Pegula as the new owner of the Sabres that the "French Connection" was reunited. Pegula, a lifelong Sabres fan, became emotional when he learned that Perreault, Martin and Robert were in attendance.



Saturday, March 12, 2011

Worst head injuries in NHL history

10. Pat Quinn elbows Bobby Orr (April 2, 1969)



9. Francois Leroux elbows Pat Lafontaine (October 17, 1996)



8. Scott Stevens hits Eric Lindros (May 26, 2000)



7. Wayne Maki hits Ted Green in the head with his stick (September 21, 1969)



6. Marty McSorely hits Donald Brashear with his stick in the head (February 21, 2000)



5. Nixk Kypreos knocked out by Ryan Vandenbussche (September 15, 1997)



4. Lou Fontinato hit into boards (March 9, 1963)



3. Todd Bertuzzi attacks Steve Moore (March 7, 2004)



2. Ace Bailey tripped from behind by Eddie Shore (December 12, 1933)



1. Bill Masterton dies from a fall onto his head (January 13, 1968)

Thursday, March 10, 2011

NHL Power Ranking - Week 23

It looks like the Maple Leafs are cooling down which means they are going to be stalled at about 23rd in in the NHL power ranking with time running out.

Sportsnet: 21 (+5)
Sports Illustrated: 22 (+2)
ESPN: 23 (0)
CBS Sports: 23 (-1)
National Post: 23 (+1)
The Hockey News: 23 (0)
La Times: 23 (+1)
TSN: 25 (-1)

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Year of the Concussion continues


The latest victim to be maimed is Max Pacioretty who suffered a concussion and fractured vertebrae (no dislocation) at the hands of Zdeno Chara. He too is gone for the rest of the season if not longer.

I admit the circumstances here are different. The two players interacted in a location of the rinks which clearly is recognized to be more hazardous. The hit from Chara caused Pacioretty's head to crash into the stanchion between the benches. Had this hit occurred elsewhere on the ice the results would have been different.

The reaction by the on ice officials and the league head office is what leaves me puzzled. Mike Murphy ruled that no suspension was warranted because it was a "hockey play", Charo didn't leave his feet when he made the hit, Charo didn't aim for his head, and Charo has a clean 13 year record. This was a simple interference penalty that unfortunately had a bad outcome because of the stanchion Pacioretty hit.

Then why did the on ice official hand Charo a match penalty and a game misconduct if it was just interference? How does Murphy know for sure there was no malice on the part of Chara? The previous Bruin-Canadiens game was a 60 minute brawl and at one point Pacioretty had crosschecked Chara who then went after the Canadiens forward. How do we know for sure this hit wasn't at least part payback? And at 6'9" if Chara had left his feet to make the hit he would have landed in the 5th row behind the benches.

Chara is always used an example of why you can't ban head hits because it would be unfair to larger players. So why is it not considered unfair to shorter players who have to take hits to the head from larger opponents? My view is that every player has an obligation to avoid hits to the head. It might be more difficult for Chara but so be it.

As far as whether Chara deserved a fine or suspension, I'm ambivalent at this point. These penalties are not deterrents. They aren't even slaps on the wrist. Each week the number of players out of the lineup with concussions grows. The league has failed its players and fans on this front. A 4 game suspension to Chara isn't going to make a difference. Meanwhile a player is in Montreal General Hospital with his career and his health at risk.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Leafs let a valuable point slip away


This is not a put down of the Islanders but for the Leafs to finish in the top 8, they cannot afford to give up points to teams below them in the standings. Especially considering there are twice as many teams ahead of them compared to those behind the Leafs.

The Leafs came back from one goal deficits three times but could never take the lead before losing in overtime 4-3.

This game had a little bit of everything including Keith Aulie's first NHL goal. James Reimer made a terrific save on a Matt Martin breakaway and followed that up on a penalty shot save when Dion Phaneuf was called for hooking on the play. Oh and one of reasons this game even made it to overtime was because the Islanders hit 3 posts and a crossbar.

The Leafs were outshot 40-27 and out hit 30-20. The Islanders even had an edge on blocked shots 17-14. Once again their futile powerplay failed to score. I think it's been 5 games now.

Why the Phoenix Coyotes won't die


A last-ditch plan could be in the works to salvage the sale of the Phoenix Coyotes to prospective buyer Matthew Hulsizer. If that plan fails, the hockey franchise could then be sold to a Canadian group who will move the Coyotes back to Winnipeg. Gary Bettman tried to arrange a meeting the Goldwater Institute but was unsuccessful.

So why won't this thing die? Well for one thing the NHL is attempting to negotiate a TV contract with NBC. Phoenix is the 12th largest market in the U.S. and as it is the NHL doesn't have a team in 2 of the top 20 TV markets. Adding another to the list isn't going to assist in those negotiations.

Matthew Hulsizer has suggested he loves the Phoenix area and is committed to making this work. He indicated that he has been approached by several other NHL franchises eager to sell and turned them down because he wants the Coyotes. And he Coyotes need a committed and stable owner.

I think the NHL actually feels bad for the City of Glendale which has put up a lot of money to support this franchise. The NHL would therefore like to go to the wall to make this sale happen. That is why no deadline has been give to complete the deal.

That being said there are a few possible scenarios:

• Reducing the amount of City of Glendale bonds for Hulsizer and the Coyotes from $100 million down to $70 million. That might still not satisfy Goldwater.

• Having the NHL discount its estimated $170 million asking price for the team, plus this year’s $25 million to $30 million in losses it wants covered by Glendale or Hulsizer. I can't see that happening because the other owners never agreed that they would lose money over the Coyotes. In fact they have been promised it would cost them nothing if they cooperated.

• Asking Hulsizer to contribute more than the current estimated $70 million he is putting into the transaction. He might if he can get some other concessions from the league.
• Possibly leveraging $25 million Glendale previously allocated to help cover the Coyotes losses this season.

• Hoping the reduced bonds amount and financial changes lessen legal opposition to the deal from the Goldwater Institute watchdog group. It doesn't sound like they will back off but you never know.


Monday, March 7, 2011

Jacques Lemaire should be Coach of the Year Decade


Jacques Lemaire had won 588 regular season games and one Stanley as a NHL coach prior to this season. That placed in 7th in career coaching wins.

Lemaire announced his retirement as a head coach in the NHL on April 26, 2010. However, on December 23, 2010, after New Jersey Devils Head Coach John MacLean was fired after only 33 games, Lemaire came out of retirement to coach once again for the New Jersey Devils.

The Devils were 9-22-2 under MacLean - dead last in the NHL. A perennial contender in the Eastern Conference, the Devils were expected to be among the leaders again this season after re signing all-star forward Ilya Kovalchuk to a 15-year, $100-million US contract in the off-season.

The desperate Devils turned once again to Lemaire. He spent three weeks tinkering with this wreck of a team. On January 8 they were just 10-29-2 and 27 points out of the playoffs. Then suddenly the Devils went on a 20-2-2 streak that caught just about everyone by surprise. In fact New Jersey is now just 3 points behind the Maple Leafs, 8 points out of the playoffs and coming on strong. Now the Devils won't make the playoffs but no one could have predicted at Christmas that they could return from the dead altogether.

Over the past 24 games, the Devils have given up more than two goals just twice. Kovalchuk had eight goals when Lemaire took over December 23. Now he has 24 goals, including nine goals in his last 13. Classic Lemaire defensive-style hockey. And he has done it without top forward Zach Parise and future Hall of Fame goalie Martin Brodeur.

For those who never want to give credit to coaches when teams win (anyone could have won with that lineup) try to explain this run of success. Coaches make a difference. Lemaire has to be Coach of the Year. When he finally retires after this season, he shouldn't have to wait too long to get his ticket to the Hall of Fame. He serves it.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Glendale may sue Goldwater


The City of Glendale is planning to launch a lawsuit on Monday against the Goldwater Institute, a public watchdog board, over the potential sale of the Phoenix Coyotes, according to ESPN.com. The City is trying to sell a municipal bond issue to raise money which would be part of a transaction critical to keeping the Phoenix Coyotes in Glendale.The $100 million in bonds is intended to be used to purchase from potential owner Matthew Hulsizer the parking rights to Jobling.com arena where the Coyotes play. Hulsizer will put the Glendale money towards the purchase of the Coyotes from the NHL who are looking for about $170 million. Without the Glendale money Hulsizer walks and the NHL relocates the team to Winnipeg. The Arizona constitution prohibits governments from providing the private sector with gifts, loans, subsidies, etc. The Goldwater Institute is a conservative public policy research organization established in 1988 that advances public policies with emphasis on lower taxes and limited government spending. They have threatened the City with lawsuits if it goes ahead with the bond issue which has scared off already scarce investors.

Glendale contends that it could lose over $500 million in taxes, revenues and lost jobs in the Coyotes leave. That might not that much of a stretch as they are on the hook for the $180 million spent on the arena. They arena isn't going to provide much in the way of taxes and other revenue if it's vacant and someone who have to spend money to maintain it.


So the moving vans to Winnipeg may have to wait a little longer.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Only 10-game suspension for Tevor Gillies? NHL needs some smelling salts and wake up!

Islanders’ GM Garth Snow does not agree with the 10-game suspension that NHL handed down to Trevor Gillies on Friday. As a matter of fact, he doesn’t even necessarily think the hit Gillies put on the Wild’s Cal Clutterbuck during Wednesday’s 4-1 win was a penalty.

Really doesn't that just sum up what is wrong with today's NHL. GMs and coaches will go to the wall to defend their enforcers but doing so is being so short-sighted. Because tomorrow night some goon could knock out your star player for the remainder of the season. Do you think if that hit was delivered to John Tavares or Matt Mouslon he would feel the same way? I doubt it. Gillies claims he was finishing his check but you can clearly see he also punched Clutterbuck in the head.


NHL Power Ranking - Week 22

The Maple Leaf surge is beginning to get noticed. Most of the season the Leafs have languished at about 28th in the weekly power ranking by online sports websites and bloggers. However slowly they have begun to rise in the rankings to about 5 spots above where before the All-Star break.

Sports Illustrated: 22nd (+2)
CBS Sports: 22nd (+1)
Toronto Sun: 22nd (0)
ESPN: 23rd (+4)
Hockey News: 23rd (+4)
USA Today: 23rd (+4)
Sporting News: 23rd (+2)
TSN: 24th (+2)
FoxSports: 24th (+2)
Sportsnet: 26th (+1)

Friday, March 4, 2011

First hockey game took place 136 years ago


The first organized game of ice hockey took place on March 3, 1875 at the Victoria Skating Rink in Montreal, based on a set of rules proposed by a group of McGill University students. The game also featured a number of those students.

James G. A. Creighton, who went on to become a McGill law student, was believed to have played a role in the established the first set of formal rules.

Two nine-man groups, one of which was captained by Creighton, opposed each other in the world's first-ever indoor public display of an ice hockey game. The event was played at the Victoria Skating Rink.

By moving ice hockey game indoors, the smaller dimensions of the rink initiated a major change from the outdoor version of the game, limiting organized contests to a nine-man limit per team. Until that time, outdoor games had no prescribed number of players, the number being more or less the number that could fit on a frozen pond or river and often ranged in the dozens. The nine-man per side rule would last until the 1880s, when it was reduced during the Montreal Winter Carnival Hockey Tournament.

The key innovation was the substitution of a square, wooden disk (puck), which offered the players far more control than they had over a ball.

source