11-year-old makes amazing hockey shot...or did he?

It's being called the "shot heard 'round Faribault."

"The place went crazy," says Vance Vinar. "No one could believe it."

Between periods of a charity hockey game Thursday at Shattuck St. Mary's, fans could buy a ten dollar raffle ticket for the chance to win $50,000.

The catch? Make an improbable shot. Shoot a puck from center ice into a 3 and a half inch hole in the goal. An 89 foot shot!

"A hockey puck is three inches wide and an inch high," says Vinar, the organizer of the charity game. "The odds are like making a hole-in-one."

11-year old Nick Smith from Owatonna was the lucky name drawn and the shot was made. One fan described the crowd as "louder than a Stanley Cup game."

The amazing shot isn't the entire story.

"I was outside when my name was called," says Nick Smith. "So Nate took the shot in my place."

No one suspected anything. Nate and Nick are twin brothers.

"I walked back in and my friend told me my brother made the shot," says Nick. "I was shocked."

Both brothers have played hockey since they were 3 years old, but both admit the shot was pretty lucky.

"I just lined up and yeah...made it," says Nate. "I was pretty stunned."

Nate and Nick's dad came forward Friday and told event organizers that it was the other brother that made the shot. He told KARE-11 simply, "that's the right thing to do."

That Nate-for-Nick swap may mean they forfeit the cash prize, but either way the amazing sports memory has been made. Legally it has to be the person whose name is on the ticket,” said general manager April Clark from Odds on Promotion, the tournament insurance carrier. “We really are very careful about explaining that it has to be the person.”

"If we get the money, we'll save it for college," laughs Nate. "It was pretty cool."

I've had years of experience in dealing with insurance companies and I can assure you they will not pay the $50,000. It's that they are bad people but it is a business and they pay out based on the rules of the game. The tournament pays premiums based on the risks calculated by underwriters. The ticketsin turn are priced based on the insurance premium paid to allow the tournament organizers to make a profit. The rules say no substitution because that would allow a participant to bring in a ringer (eg. his cousin happens to be Sidney Crosby). Allowing a substitute could substantially alter the risks of a winner and would require a higher premium. Which is a complicated way of saying nice shot Nate but no cheque for you.

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Will Ron Wilson survive the season?

There isn't a coach skating on thinner ice than Maple Leafs coach Ron Wilson. His relationship with GM Brian Burke has kept him around this long but without a contract extension he is trapped in a corner. A slow start to the season and his is done. But if he makes it to Christmas then he needs to ride through the Maple Leafs. tradition winter losing streak. That won't be easy.

The signs are there. Burke fired assistants Keith Acton and Tim Hunter. Hunter had been a long term associate of Wilson so I can't see Wilson agreeing with the move. ThenScott Gordon was immediately brought in as an assistant as Wilson’s pick, but one would imagine Burke had some say in assuring pair of new guys had a certain level of experience.

Of course Gordon’s hiring isn’t directly related to Wilson’s potential firing, but it does make things easier for Burke if things don’t go smoothly when the season gets underway. It provides Burke with an interim coach familiar with the team so that a more robust search can take place during the offseason.

Strong finishes do not carry over to next season so let's put that notion to rest right away. The team can easily struggle in the early part of the season. After three season in charge, the special teams are still terrible. In addition, Wilson's tendency to throw his players under the bus by criticizing them in front of the media doesn't exactly create harmony in the dressing room. When Phil Kessel admitted that he and his coach rarely spoke, it was to me a significant revelation. Here was your best player acknowledging that Wilson was a poor communicator and it was coming from a player who rarely speaks to the media. Certainly there is some frustration in the dressing room.

I do believe that Ron Wilson is a good coach and his record speaks for itself. However, he is an old school coach and I don't believe he is very much in sync with his young team. I ran an identical post a year ago with the same points. Frankly I believe the only reason Wilson is still around is because of the strong finish by the Leafs last season but I attribute that to James Reimer and not the coach. If Wilson continues to get decent goaltending and improved production from his centres then he can survive but it really is time that the Leafs move in a different direction. The dressing room culture has been changed but its time to hire a players' coach.

The Trade: 23 years later

August 9, 1988, is a day that lives in infamy for fans of both the Edmonton Oilers and Canadian hockey. Wayne Gretzky wasn't the only one shedding tears as he said goodbye at a press conference announcing his trade to the Los Angeles Kings. Fans wept, members of Parliament raged and the media soaked it all in.

It became known simply as The Trade.

At the end of the 1987-88 season, there was no reason to believe that Edmonton’s own version of Camelot would soon end. Gretzky had just raised the Stanley Cup over his head to conclude another banner season. The Oilers won their fourth Cup in five seasons, and Gretzky had wowed the League with a 149-point campaign despite missing 16 regular-season games to injury.

In July, he married actress Janet Jones in an extravagant wedding, and Oilers fans believed that hockey’s new royal couple would make Alberta their permanent home.

However, soon after the marriage, there were rumors that Oilers’ owner Peter Pocklington was facing financial difficulties. Nelson Skalbania, the man who had sold Gretzky’s contract to Pocklington in 1978, knew of the difficulties and worked on brokering a deal that would send Gretzky to the Winnipeg Jets.

As the Jets continued to work out a deal, coin-dealer-turned-millionaire Bruce McNall, the new owner of the Los Angeles Kings, made the cash-strapped Pocklington an offer for Gretzky's services. In a deal that would send a needed $15 million to Pocklington, McNall bought the Oilers franchise player.

Are the Luke Schenn negotiations in trouble?

The Los Angeles Kings are at a negotiating stalemate with defenseman Drew Doughty, a restricted free agent. That situation got no easier when an arbitrator awarded Nashville's Shea Weber, a more experienced defenseman, $7.5 million for one year.

The Kings believe that Doughty will be a holdout. Holdouts can derail a season for a player and/or a team. They can create animosity between the two sides that lingers beyond the contract resolution. They're generally, and genuinely, bad news. That being said the NHL has seen very few holdouts. The player has little to lose from holding out because they often get paid for the entire season no matter how many games they actually play.

Now there is speculation that this is just the Kings executives playing hard ball with Doughty. But Doughty is represented by Don Meehan of Newport Sports who is an savvy negotiator with over 30 years in the business. He just negotiated the free agent contract for Brad Richards.

Meehan also represents Leaf defenseman Luke Schenn. Since Schenn was selected just 3 spots behind Doughty in the 2008 Entry Draft the two couldn't be more closely linked. I can't see Schenn signing before Doughty signs his contract. So if Doughty ends up being a holdout, will Schenn follow suit?

I'm not suggesting that Schenn will be able to get close to the money Doughty will be getting. However, the more that Doughty gets the more Schenn will be able to demand. Maybe Brian Burke be able to get Schenn's signature on a contract but if he can't get it done before the season starts, it could derail the Leafs' dream of making the playoffs/

What can you get for just a buck?

When the Detroit Red Wings acquired a young rookie named Kris Draper from the Winnipeg Jets, they did so with the most lopsided trade in NHL history.

The Jets had a handshake agreement with Draper. If he was unable to make the Jets in 1993 (after 3 years in the minor leagues he had only played 20 games in Winnipeg) they would move him to another team. The Jets kept their word, selling Draper to Detroit for a measly $1.

Seventeen seasons later, Draper finally retired, still a member of the Red Wings. All told Draper finished his career with 161 goals and 203 assists in 1,157 regular-season games. He found a home on Detroit's third and fourth lines (often playing along side "Grind Line" mates Kirk Maltby and Joe Kocur/Darren McCarty), crashing, banging and shutting down the other team's top lines. He was also a huge part of Detroit's elite penalty killing.

Talk about a buck well spent. Draper was an integral part of the Red Wings powerhouse teams that won four Stanley Cups. In an amazing 222 playoff games, Draper scored 24 goals and 46 points. He also played in the Olympics, the World Cup and four World Championships.

Winnipeg Jets Entry Draft party

Below is a video taken from the party held at the MTS Centre in Winnipeg during the Entry Draft in June. If this is any indication of the enthusiasm of their fans when the season starts, they will have some great crowds at their games.

Highest paid NHL players for 2011-12

I've updated the list to reflect the Stamkos signing. Shea Weber doesn't make the list because his arbitration award is for only one season. His $7.5 million cap hit puts him in the top 10 but for actually paid salary he drops down because of the players with front loaded contracts.

PLAYER	2011/12 SALARY	CAP HIT
Brad Richards	$12,000,000	$6,667,000
Christian Ehrhoff	$10,000,000	$4,000,000
Vincent Lecavalier	$10,000,000	$7,727,000
Ilya Bryzgalov	$10,000,000	$5,667,000
Sidney Crosby	$9,000,000	$8,700,000
Eveni Malkov	$9,000,000	$8,700,000
Alex Ovechkin	$9,000,000	$9,538,000
Zdeno Chara	$8,500,000	$6,917,000
Jason Spezza	$8,000,000	$7,000,000
Dany Heatley	$8,000,000	$7,500,000
Joe Thornton	$8,000,000	$7,000,000
Duncan Keith	$8,000,000	$5,551,000
Steven Stamkos	$8,000,000	$7,500,000
Marian Hossa	$7,900,000	$5,233,000
Eric Staal	$7,750,000	$8,250,000
Henrik Zetterberg	$7,750,000	$6,083,000

What's next for the New York Islanders?

Municipal official in Nassau County had to have known that the $2 million referendum would be a big waste of money or did they actually believe that Islanders owner Charles Wang could convince taxpayers to build him a new arena. It wasn't even close with 57% of voters indicated that they weren't interested in assessing themselves a big tax increase.

Immediately the speculation is that the Islanders are heading out of town or at least to Brooklyn. But clearly the Islanders aren't going too far from Long Island. If Gary Bettman is fighting tooth and nail to keep the Coyotes in Phoenix then I don't see a NHL team leaving the largest media market in America under his watch. So Quebec fans should just calm down.

Well the Islanders are staying put until their lease runs out in 2015 so a lot can happen between then and now. Wang has already taken a run at building a new arena through the private sector. In 2003, community opposition shot down his proposal for the privately-funded Lighthouse Project, a massive US$3.8-billion development that included a new arena, hotel, condominium towers, shopping centre and other extravagance. The Islanders have the lowest attendance figures in the NHL - lower than the Coyotes. That's not going to coax anyone to open up their wallet to buy the team.

Well I don't know whether the Brooklyn option is for real although the arena is clearly too small for today's NHL standards. Still it is intriguing. There is a strong sports tradition in Brooklyn and great access through public transit. And let's not forget the cable TV money. No question the Islanders will be hanging in tough somewhere in The Big Apple.

Scouting Report: David Broll

*In this season's draft the Leafs selected 6-foot-1, 225-pound David Broll (aka Brolldozer) 152nd overall. An impressive prospect camp earlier this month only reinforced their belief that the Mississauga native could eventually help at the NHL level, and they just signed him to a three-year entry-level contract.

Broll was highly regarded coming out of midget hockey and it was anticipated that with his size and good hands he could be a big-time scoring power forward. A hard-working, two-way player, he has been a physical presence in his two years in the OHL but has not yet put up big scoring numbers and is a bit lacking mobility-wise. He uses his size to advantage and can handle the puck in small spaces but his limited skating ability and lack of consistency have limited his production to this point. In 2010-11 Broll scored 8 goals with 14 assists in 41 games before a mid-season trade to Sault Ste. Marie. Broll scored 5 goals with 7 assists with the Greyhounds. Broll slipped from 78th in the midterm rankings to 139th in Central Scouting’s final rankings of North American skaters.

Broll will return to the Soo Greyhounds for his third season in the OHL after Leafs’ camp this fall. Broll is a leadership-type player and seemed to benefit from an increased role with the Greyhounds. He has slipped some in the eyes of scouts since his midget days but the Leafs are hoping that he will become the prototypical power forward his skills and size suggest he can be. At this point it looks like his pro role, at least initially, will be that of an energy line, forechecking forward and potential enforcer.

Team culture does matter

It's well none that Brian Burke has been attempting to change the culture of losing in the Maple Leaf dressing. Following the Tomas Kaberle trade no Leaf player preceded the current Fletcher'Burke era.

No word is out that the purge in Philadelphia during the offseason was also an attempt to change the team culture - and this was a winning team. This may be pure gossip but the Philadelphia Daily News reports that the hard-partying ways of Flyers captain Mike Richards and center Jeff Carter played a major role in the organization's decision to trade both players in June. The columnist indicates the information comes from two unnamed Flyers players.

Shortly after his arrival in December 2009, coach Peter Laviolette instituted what players came to call the "Dry Island." Laviolette asked team members to commit to not drinking for a month, and each player was asked to write his number on a locker room board as a pledge. No. 17 (Carter) and No. 18 (Richards) were absent from the board on the first Dry Island, as well as the estimated five more times the policy was instituted.

There was also some suggestions that the traded players did not get along with Chris Pronger who appears destined to be the next Flyers captain.

Scouting Report: Greg McKegg

The Maple Leafs drafted Greg McKegg in the 3rd round (62nd overall) in 2010. He is a 6'0", 190 lbs left winger with the Erie Otters. McKegg had a breakout season for the Otters in 2009-10. Appearing in 67 games for that club, he scored 37 goals and assisted on 48 others for 85 points. Suffered knee strain in preseason and spent the rest of the year working to get his speed back. Played on top line with Zack Torquato and Mike Cazzola.

He excelled on the special teams for Erie this past season scoring 16 of his 37 goals on the power-play. Not overly physical, but also doesn’t shy away from contact. He has deceptive hands and the ability to slip through tight areas. McKegg has the capacity to score goals in a variety of ways and isn’t afraid of driving the net. He is projected to be a top 6 forward one day. Physically not a classic Burke winger but has offensive potential.

Joe Sakic's $1 million hole-in-one

Joe Sakic sunk a hole-in-one at the American Century Celebrity Golf Championship, where a perfect shot on the 17th earned him a $1 million bonus from the tournament sponsor. Half of it going to Sakic and half goes to Lance Armstrong’s Livestrong Foundation. The best part is his reaction, which starts off as nothing, followed by arms-raised, and then becomes high-fives and a victory lap.

Who would expected the most incredible goal of the year would come from Israel?

During the D-III championships in April in South Africa, Eliezer Sherbatov had a six-point game against Greece and delivered what should be a highlight-reel goal. Sherbatov plays for Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL.

The 10 worst NHL contracts

10. Christian Ehrhoff (Buffalo)

Ehrhoff’s contract isn’t as bad as some make it out to be. Sure it’s 10 years but the last 3 years are for just $1 million per season which makes a buyout feasible. What makes this contract ugly is the $18 million in the first two seasons and the fact that Ehrhoff who his turning 30 has to remain healthy and productive for 7 seasons. He will be paid $37 million in those 7 seasons so he isn’t really a $4 million defenseman. He has had 3 productive seasons in a row and has not missed many games in his career. There are some risks here.

9. Marian Hossa (Chicago)

Hossa is entering season 4 of a 12-year contract and he is 32 years old. He will continue to be paid $7.9 million per season until he is 37 years old. The NHL hasn’t had very many players that have been big point producers at that age. He has been a 30-goal scorer 7 times and a 40-goal scorer 3 times. The past two season he has had injury problems and been limited to just 25 goals and under 60 points. Hossa’s contract is a classic example of paying a player based on past performance and not on what he is capable of producing prospectively. This contract will get uglier as time goes on.

8. Ilya Bryzgalov (Philadelphia)

Bryzgalov has been a starter since being picked up on waivers by Phoenix 4 seasons ago. His career GAA is 2.53 and SAV% is .916 which are pretty good. The Flyers have had no luck with goalies and have opened the bank in this case. It’s pretty clear they are overpaying. Forget about the cap hit, Bryzgalov will make $47.5 million over the next 7 seasons when he is 38 years old. There will be just $3.5 million remaining in the final two years of the contract. The butterfly style causes goalies breakdown earlier in their careers. I can’t see Bryzgalov playing over 400 more games as an elite goalie but if he wins the Flyers a Cup in the next 2 season then he’s worth the money.

7. Brad Richards (NY Rangers)

Well Richards is your typical long term contract but front-loaded enough to make him the highest paid NHLer for the coming season. It is a 9-year contract for $60 million but the last 3 seasons he makes $1 million per season so it really is a 6-year contract for $57 million. Overpaid? But Glen Sather makes it a habit of getting stuck with bad contracts (Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Wade Redden). Richards has had some very good years and a few mediocre ones as well. If he breaks down too soon before his 37^th birthday you can add another bad contract to Sather’s legacy. Of course Sather is counting on Richards being the next Mark Recchi.

6. Vincent Lecavalier (Tampa Bay)

Lecavalier is on season 3 of an 11-year contract and will be collecting $10 million per season until his 36^th birthday. He was an elite player but hasn’t scored at a point per game pace in 4 seasons. He had a career high 52 goals in 2006-07 but is only good for 25 now. There has been a steady stream of trade rumours involving Vinnie but that contract will be hard to move.

5. Roberto Luongo (Vancouver)

Luongo is 32 and in just season 2 of a 12-year contract. Who hasn’t noticed that Luongo’s performance has been up and down throughout his career. He is clearly not the best goalie in the league . The problem here is not the annual salary as much as the term of the contract. This is another contract that would be tough to move.

4. Ilya Kovalchuk (New Jersey)

The Devil’s owner totally lost his mind last summer when he signed Kovalchuk to a 15-year contract. An extremely gifted scorer but not too many players are scoring 40 goals when they reach the age of 35 – a year Kovalchuk will still be collecting $10 million in pay.

3. Marc Savard (Boston)

In 2009 the Bruins signed Savard to a 7-year extension and just 4 months later Matt Cooke’s cheap shot to the head has pretty much put Savard’s career in jeopardy. This contract and Rick Di’Pietro’s illustrate the risk of signing players to lengthy contracts. One day they are healthy and the next day they can be washed up. There are only 3 big salary-years remaining on the contract but even if his career continues I don’t see him returning to play at his previous level.

2. Wade Redden (NY Rangers)

This could be the worst contract handed out by Glen Sather. Redden is entering season 3 of a 6-year, $39 million contract but played all last season in the AHL. Fortunately the Rangers can afford to bury $23 million in the minors. A true waste both in terms of money and talent. Redden can still play in the NHL but it won’t happen with that contract.

1. Rick DiPietro (NY Islanders)

Islander owner Charles Wang is the King of Bad Contracts. He is still paying Alexi Yashin who hasn’t been in the NHL in 4 years. But his deal with DiPietro takes the cake. DiPietro is entering season 6 of a 15-year deal. The problem is DiPietro has only played 39 games over the past 3 seasons. His hips are a mess and I can’t see him playing for 10 more seasons. For every Tim Thomas playing into his late 30’s there are 100 goalies who are washed up before their 30^th birthday. A cautionary note here, one not picked up in Vancouver and Philadelphia.

The Life of Brian

“You’re talking about the Vatican, if you’re Catholic.”

This is how Burke described the Toronto Maple Leafs back in 2008 when asked by the media if he would be interested in running the Leafs during the search for a new Leaf GM at the time. So now that Burke is in charge of the Vatican I guess he considers himself to be a Pope.

I think Brian Burke is a great hockey executive but he also has a pretty big ego. His success as Leaf GM will not only depend on his management skills but also his ability to manage his own ego. He needs to behave more like a GM and less like a Pope.

The Toronto Sun recently levelled unfair criticism of Burke over his decision to be in Afghanistan on July 1^st visiting Canadian troops instead of pitching Brad Richards and other free agents. Look Burke has a very large and competent team around him including Dave Nonis, Claude Loiselle, Dave Poulin, and Rick Dudley – two are former GMs. Clearly his delegates are capable of pitching free agents and in fact most of the free agent signings over the past two year were probably completed by Nonis. And everyone in hockey knew that Brad Richards was going to re-join his former coach, John Tortorella, in New York. The other teams’ offers only served to keep the Rangers’ offer at a suitable term and amount. Yet the optics of Brian Burke in Kandahar were very bad. The Pope was off doing on a mission while his staff was at home doing the regular work.

More disturbing to me is his “holier than thou” attitude regarding long-term contracts and the collective agreement. The Leafs’ pitch to Brad Richards was inadequate and they knew it because the term was too short. Burke doesn’t believe in front-loaded contract because he feels it undermines the collective agreement. However, the NHL has accepted Brad Richard’s contact and all the other front-loaded contracts because, in fact, they are within the collective agreement. Burke’s view is about as relevant as the Pope’s view on how to decorate your Christmas tree.

The problem for the Maple Leafs is that they will not be a major player during free agency as long as their GM takes this approach. In fact, I can foresee Burke losing one of his own star players to free agency over his refusal to structure a contract similar to other star players. I can understand not making an offer because the economics of that contract would weaken rather strengthen the Leafs. But to refuse to improve the team because of his views are more important than winning a championship is just plain arrogance we can’t afford here after 44 years without a Cup.

Pope Brian, it’s time to get off your throne.

Highest paid NHL players for 2011-12

All the big money has been spent and there are now new leaders in the top salaries NHL players. Timing is everything so not surprising the top players signed during this summer. But who would have ever imagined that the second highest paid player would be Christian Ehrhoff. It's not all that bad because his contract is heavily front-loaded.

PLAYER	2011/12 SALARY	CAP HIT
Brad Richards	$12,000,000	$6,667,000
Christian Ehrhoff	$10,000,000	$4,000,000
Vincent Lecavalier	$10,000,000	$7,727,000
Ilya Bryzgalov	$10,000,000	$5,667,000
Sidney Crosby	$9,000,000	$8,700,000
Eveni Malkov	$9,000,000	$8,700,000
Alex Ovechkin	$9,000,000	$9,538,000
Zdeno Chara	$8,500,000	$6,917,000
Jason Spezza	$8,000,000	$7,000,000
Dany Heatley	$8,000,000	$7,500,000
Joe Thornton	$8,000,000	$7,000,000
Duncan Keith	$8,000,000	$5,551,000
Marian Hossa	$7,900,000	$5,223,000
Henrik Zetterberg	$7,750,000	$6,083,000
Eric Staal	$7,750,000	$8,250,000

When you compare these salaries with the top salaries from the 2003-04 season you will notice that salary levels for the top players have returned to the pre-lockout levels. So owners were able to only turn back the clock so to speak by 8 years.

PLAYER	2003/04 SALARY
Peter Forsberg	$11,000,000
Jaromir Jagr	$11,000,000
Sergei Federov	$10,000,000
Pavel Bure	$10,000,000
Niklas Lindstrom	$10,000,000
Keith Tkachuk	$10,000,000
Joe Sakic	$9,881,000
Chirs Pronger	$9,500,000
Rob Blake	$9,327,000
John LeClair	$9,000,000
Mike Modano	$9,000,000
Mats Sundin	$9,000,000
Bill Guerin	$8,866,000
Robert Holik	$8,850,000
Doug Weight	$8,500,000

Leafs buy Cody Franson for $7 million

This deal would have been a salary dump if Matthew Lombardi could still play hockey but his future is very much in doubt. Lombardi played only 2 games last season and has spent the past 9 months recovering from a concussion. He intends on attending Leafs training camp in the fall but that may be largely wishful thinking.

No this is a straight out purchase of Cody Franson who will be a top 4 defenseman for the Leafs for $7,000,000 which is what is remaining on Lombardi's contract. Sure they are players going the other way (Brett Lebda and Robert Slaney) but they are just throw-ins to keep the NHL head office types from sniffing around. I doubt Nashville was looking to trade Franson and would never have agreed to Lebda and Slaney for just Franson.

This is just another example of how big market teams have an advantage over smaller market franchises. Although Brian Burke does not like the long-term, front-loaded contracts handed out by the other big market teams, he has no problem scooping up problem contracts if the other team throws in some good young talent.

When Burke dealt Francois Beauchemin to Anaheim he was after young defense prospect Jake Gardiner but to make the deal happen he had to agree to take on the contract of Joffrey Lupul. Lupul is not a bad player but has had health problems and has a hefty contract. As it turns out Lupul was able to stay healthy right to the end of the season and regained his scoring touch. Perhaps Lombardi can recover too in which case the Leafs have themselves another decent centre and finally some depth at that position but no one is counting on that.

For Nahsville the deal is one that they had to swallow. Although Lombardi while on their long term injury list would not count against their salary cap, it was a cash flow issue. For teams will little or no profitability it is hard to justify paying a player who cannot play. The Rangers will continue to Wade Redden's salary while he plays in the AHL but that's fine as along as he doesn't take up valuable cap space. So the Predators had to move a good young defenseman to help their bottom line.

That's today's NHL.

Leafs mercifully only sign Tim Connolly

When Brian Burke announced the Maple Leafs would be very active on July 1, I cringed knowing that talent pool was weak and the prices would be high. Thankfully the Leafs missed out on Brad Richards and settled for Tim Connolly.

The Leafs have been wisely stockpiling young players. Right now those players are cheap but over time they will become much more expensive. Providing free agents with big long term contracts may force you to begin shedding some of the young talent over time. That is what happened to Chicago. So a short term contract for Connolly makes sense.

How much is Connolly being over paid at $9.5 million over 2 years? Well he will be their second highest paid forward just behind Phil Kessel. He has never scored 2o goals in a season and only twice exceeded 50 points. Those are not numbers of a first line centre. If he had a Clarke MacArthur type of year that would be great but he still wouldn't be worth the money. But this is what you get in the free agent market. Mike Komisarek cost the Leafs $22.5 million over 5 years and he often doesn't even get 10 minutes of ice in a game.

Connolly is a playmaker so let's hope he can click with Phil Kessel. He will help the powerplay and penalty killing and we know how bad the Leafs' special teams have been. But let's not kid ourselves this guy can't stay healthy which is the only reason this contract sucks.

The stupidity of Free Agent Madness

There was a time when July 1 brought about some tremendous hockey talent onto the marketplace. This was particularly the case when the NHL dropped the minimum age for free agents from 31 to 27. It meant stars in their prime could shop themselves around. Who can forget Marian Hossa shop himself around several summers trying to land on a Stanley Cup team before he settled in Chicago.

But those days are long gone. General Managers lock in their stars at young ages with 10 year or more contracts. Instead the free agent markets has the occasional top talent - usually because their team can't afford to resign them and didn't trade them away first. Over the past five years the quality of the free agents has diminished considerably. But the size of the contracts have not. In the first day of free agency $270 million in contracts were handed out. Another $85 million was spent on day 2. Most of the money is going to journeymen, players drafted high but never reaching their potential, players with a history of injuries and some players at the end of their careers trying to hang on for another season. Though picking up Robyn Regehr from Calgary was a smart move and only possible because the owner's willingness to spend.


So why do teams throw around this kind of money?

There are a few different scenarios. One is the new deep-pocketed owner that wants to let everyone know he is a "player." That was Tampa Bay in 2008 when Oren Koules and Len Barry bought the team and decided to go after every free agent with no plan or vision. I remember before the dust had settled the Lightning had about 6 lines worth of forwards but nothing on defense or net. This season it's Terry Pegula the new owner of the Buffalo Sabres. So far they have signed Ville Leino, That was only 6 years but the Christian Ehrhoff deal the Sabres signed was 10 years. Will this push Buffalo back into a playoff spot? Well maybe. Leino isn't really much of an upgrade over Tim Connolly but their defense is much improved and with Ryan Miller in net they will compete.

Then there are the teams frantically signing players to get to the salary minimum floor of $48.3 million. That happens to exceed the maximum salary cap in 2005 by almost $10 million. The consensus would be that the Panthers overspent on their contracts, but they did make their team stronger with the signings of Tomas Fleischmann, Scottie Upshall, Ed Jovanovski, Sean Bergenheim, Marcel Goc and Jose Theodore. They also traded for Kris Versteeg. GM Dale Tallon is attempting to recreate the Blackhawk rebuild which was created by loading up on draft picks. The Panthers have done that but they need to be careful that the free agent signings don't create a salary squeeze when their good young talent is eligible for some hefty raises. Will they make the playoffs? Hard to say because large turnover in players are a real crapshoot.

There is the GM of a contending team that also attempts a total remake of his lineup. That would be this season's Philadelphia Flyers. Let's start with trading away Jeff Carter and Mike Richards and signing Ilya Bryzgalov for a long term deal. The Jaromir Jagr signing seems like an acceptable risk, although that it's noteworthy that the Penguins wouldn't go beyond $2 million and the Red Wings wouldn't go beyond $2.5 million. The Flyers paid $3.3 million. Max Talbot will be the kind of energy player that Philadelphia fans like. Will the Flyers be better. Well if they get better goaltending then for sure.

Another group of teams are those who believe they are a player or two away from a Stanley Cup and looking for that one or two players that can fit under their salary cap and will put them over the edge. That would be the Washington Capitals who signed role players like Joel Ward, Jeff Halpern, Tomas Vokoun, Chris Bourque and Roman Hamrlik to provide depth and strengthen themselves in a few areas.

The smart teams weren't very active. These signings can throw your salary scale out of whack. If you sign a 15-goal scorer for $4 million then what are you going to pay your young developing players that reach the 20-goal mark? The dumbest signing has to be Brad Richards. You would think that Glen Sather would learn from his experience of signing Scott Gomez, Chris Drury and Wade Redden but I guess not. At 31 and with some serious concussions behind him, Richards may have only 2 to 3 good years left in him. Ranger fans relish seeing Marian Gaborik and Richards on a line together but that line might be in a doctors' waiting room.

Ex-Leafs make it as Hockey Hall of Fame selections

Considering the level of mediocrity displayed by the Maple Leafs over the past while it was nice to see three ex-Leafs voted for admission to the Hockey Hall of Fame. Although Joe Niewendyk and Ed Belfour were Leafs for just a short time and near the end of their careers, Doug Gilmour had career years in Toronto. Gilmour may not be the best player to pull on a Leaf jersey but he must be just about the most popular. He just has to show his face at a Leaf game and the crowd is once again chanting “Dougie, Dougie.” It is great to see Killer recognized with all the other greats.

I’m so pleased to see Mark Howe also get the nod. He too has a Toronto connection. He and his brother Marty played for the Toronto Marlboros for the 1972-73 season. The Marlies won the Memorial Cup that year and Mark Howe was named the Memorial Cup MVP. That team also had Bruce Boudreau, Wayne Dillon and Mike Palmateer. My father-in-law managed the Marlies back then and signing the Howe boys was one of his biggest thrills in hockey.

The HHOF class of 2011 is an outstanding group and has a distinct blue tint.

Phoenix Coyotes sales strategy

The economics of the salary cap

Several years ago it was believed that it would be next to impossible to trade a player with a monster contract. The only way a deal could be made would be in exchange for a player with a similar contract. The past week has shown that this is not the case. The Flyers moved both Mike Richards and Jeff Carter for cap relief and found teams with cap space and prospects to a make deals. Calgary was able to move Robyn Regehr to Buffalo and Florida took Brian Campbell off the hands of Chicago.

Why is happening? Well because the salary cap has been rising and with it the salary floor. Both create demand for players with high salaries.

Let’s take Scott Gomez who was once considered untradeable but was picked up by Montreal two years ago and might be moved again. When he signed with the Rangers in 2007 his salary for the first year was $10 million and the cap hit was $7.357 million. His cap hit was about 15% of the total cap and his salary was too rich for almost every team. Today his cap hit 11% of the total cap and his salary in the 3 remaining years are $7.5 million, $5.5 million and $4.5 million. So the last two years he will be paid less than the cap hit which is one of the advantages to front end loading.

If you are a small market team that has not been making money and will make even less with a $48 million cap floor, Gomez becomes attractive. In the last two years of his contract he will earn $10 million but will use up $15 million of cap space. If you can find a few players like this then your payroll can be substantially less than your cap hit which allows you to save money.

Meanwhile the higher cap ($64.3 million in 2011-12) provides big market teams with more to spend pushing salaries up even more. In the first year following the lockout, the salary cap was $39 million which limited the number $5 million or more players to just 1 or 2 per team. There were only 23 players with salaries at $5 million or more in 2005-06. Now teams can carry 3 or 4 such players. So far there are 88 players that will earn at $5 million in 2011-12 before the latest crop of UFAs have signed.

With 30 NHL teams spending potentially $150 million more in salaries the inflation rate on salaries isn't much different than before the cap. The only difference is that small market teams are desperately looking for contracts to get them to the floor which is a worse situation than existed before the lockout.

So Brad Richards will be a very happy man in a few days from now.

WANTED

$50 MILLION REWARD

Every summer, the start of the NHL's free agency period revolves around one name, and this year it's Dallas' Brad Richards.

Richards will be far and away the best talent available when deep-pocketed clubs look to give their rosters a jolt Friday. At age 31, coming off a season in which he scored 28 goals in 72 games with the Stars, the center could command $8 million a season.

After Dallas announced that it could not re-sign Richards because the team is for sale, the Stars attempted to trade away his negotiating rights, but he would not waive his no-trade clause and thus will become an unrestricted free agent.

The New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Los Angeles Kings were at one point considered potential destinations, but with the salary cap rising $5 million to $64.3 million in 2011-12, there could be other suitors. The Kings may no longer be interested now that they have picked up Mike Richards from Philadelphia.

A year ago, Ilya Kovalchuk was the NHL's hot ticket free agent, and the story played out like a soap opera. If you recall the price was so high that everyone dropped out of the running and New Jersey was bidding against themselves.

Clearly the Maple Leafs’ greatest need is a first line centre to set up their top sniper, Phil Kessel. Richards is just what they need but Brian Burke has avoided long, front-loaded contracts, what Richards will be looking for. Perhaps his attitude has changed after seeing a number of players with big contracts moved. But Richards has a history with Ranger coach John Tortorella which goes back to when Tampa Bay won their only Stanley Cup. However the Rangers have been burned by big free agent contracts in the past and may be a little gun shy.

If the Leafs cannot sign Richards then to realistically compete next season Burke will need to move some of their limited talent for a top centre. For example, the Flyers were supposedly asking for Nazem Kadri and Nikolai Kulemin for Mike Richards.

Who says the Leafs are the worst NHL franchise? Their fans!

The ESPN ranking of sports franchises got a lot of flack from Maple Leaf fans. Brian Burke was livid and was quoting as saying "I don't think ESPN knows squat about Canada; I don't think they know squat about hockey."

Now before everyone goes off the deep end on this one youi have to understand how the ranking was developed. The rankings were determined by fans who voted online in categories such as fan relations, affordability and stadium experience. It was Leaf fans who rated their team poorly not ESPN. The full explanation on how the ranking is developed is right here.

Every Leaf fan gripes about high ticket prices, ownership that is focused on profit not winning, out of touch management, no championship in decades, etc. When surveyed that is what they will readily tell anyone willing to listen. But if anyone outside of Toronto suggests that is the state of the franchise, suddenly every Leaf fan gets defensive.

We all know the price for Leaf tickets is ridiculous. Fans booed the Leafs for much of the season and began throwing objects on the ice (remember Wafflegate). Everyone knows its been 44 years since they won a Cup and 7 years since the last made the playoffs. I've never heard a fan remark that the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan were terrific owners. We have the best fans in the NHL but the franchise - not so good.

Tomas Kaberle pays big return for Leafs

It took almost 2 full years to determine the who the Maple Leafs gave up for Phil Kessel and during that time fans suffered through considerable angst. That turned out to be Tyler Seguin, Jared Knight and Dougie Hamilton. No question that was a high price to pay.

It only took 4 months to determine what players the Leafs would get in exchange for Tomas Kaberle - but if you think the price for Kessel was high then the price for Kaberle was scandalous. After all Kaberle is clearly in a decline and 9 years older than Kessel. Kessel still has his best year in front of him.

So the return for Kaberle (along with a 2nd round pick) which only happened with some nifty dealing by Brian Burke was Joe Colborne, Tyler Biggs, and John-Michael Liles. That's a lot of useful bodies.

I think some people are scratching their heads about the point of moving up 8 spots in the draft for a second round pick. You wonder if the players the Leafs had selected with the 22nd and 25th picks would not have still be available at 25th and 30th. You have no way of knowing for sure. One thing about Burke - when he locks in on a player he does what ever it takes to land him.

Peer pressure works

It was obvious the Winnipeg owners weren't crazy about calling the new franchise the Jets. But fans were insisting that the team should be named the Jets. Tonight the succumbed to pressure and confirmed that they would be called the Winnipeg Jets.

I wouldn't mind if Burke traded away his draft picks

Everyone likes to talk about a GM’s record in drafting. In reality GM’s really do not decide who gets drafted but rather his scouting department calls the shots. Certainly there is some discussion within the management team regarding the organization’s drafting priorities but it is the scouts who have been following the draft prospects. Rarely does a GM not follow the advice of his scouts.

That being said, Brian Burke (and his scouting departments) have not had a very good track record on draft day. People like to point to his drafting of Chris Pronger in 1993 with the second pick overall or the Sedins with the second and third picks overall in 1999. But those picks were no brainers. Burke’s skills were better exhibited in acquiring the second pick to be in a position to draft both players.

The Canucks already possessed the third pick that was used to select Henrik Sedin. To draft Daniel Sedin Burke traded Bryan McCabe and their first-round pick in 2000 or2001 to Chicago for the Blackhawks' first round pick (4th overall). That pick was then traded along with two third-round picks in the 1999 draft (75th and 88th) to Tampa Bay in exchange for the Lightning's first-round pick (1st overall). The Lightning pick, along with a conditional third-round pick in the 2000 was then traded to Atlanta for the Thrashers' first-round pick (2nd overall) under the condition that the Thrashers not select either Sedin with the first overall pick. Talk about incredible wheeling and dealing.

So here is who Burke drafted with the remainder of his picks in 1999:

Rene Vydareny
Ryan Thorpe
Josh Reed
Kevin Swanson
Markus Kankaanpera
Darrell Hay

Burke followed up his 1999 draft day with a whole pile of nothing in 2000:

Nathan Smith
Thatcher Bell
Tim Branham
Pavel Duma
Brandon Reid
Nathan Barrett
Tim Smith

Burke came up with a decent first rounder in 2001 by drafting R. J. Umberger except Burke traded Umberger for Martin Rucinsky a move that has a Maple Leaf feel to it when on the incompetence scale. The Canucks also drafted Kevin Bieksa in the fifth round and has become their top defenseman.

The rest of the 2001 picks were:

Fedor Federov
Evgeny Gladskikh
Jason King
Konstantin Mikhailov

In 2002 Burke and the Canucks didn’t get to take a player until the second round. Burke traded away the Canucks’ first round pick to bring Trevor Linden back to Vancouver. The Caps used it to select a guy by the name of Alexander Semin. That draft was an unmitigated disaster for the Canucks with one NHL appearance between the 11 former prospects (Rob McVicar).
In 2003 Burke selected Ryan Kessler with the 23rd pick.

The rest of the Canucks picks were:

Marc-Andre Bernier
Brandon Nolan
Ty Morris
Nicklas Danielsson
Chad Brownlee
Francois-Pierre Guenette
Sergei Topol
Nathan McIver
Matthew Hansen

In 1995 Burke was the GM of the Anaheim Ducks and in his first draft he nabbed Bobby Ryan with the second pick overall. Burke has had considerable success drafting second. However, the rest of the way things never go as well:

Brendan Mikkelson
Jason Bailey
Bobby Bolt
Brian Salcido
Jean-Philippe Levasseuer

It's not fair to look at subsequent years because the prospects haven't fully developed.

So when I hear talk about Burke trading picks for players I think why not? The draft depends on a combination of a strong scouting system and luck. Either Burke has been unlucky or he needs to stop hiring friends as scouts

Leaf goaltending situation is scary

All the chatter surrounding the Maple Leafs is the need for a #1 centre. I don’t disagree that this should be the priority but the lack of depth in net is scary. Right now the Leafs are going with James Reimer (37 NHL games) as their starting goalie backed up by Jonas Gustavsson (67 NHL games). Their number 3 guy would be Jussi Rynnas (0 NHL games). Despite what type of potential these goalies may have no sane GM can rely on this group of goalies to get you into the playoffs. If these young goalies falter well there is no experienced hand to step. I assume this problem will be addressed but Brian Burke has repeatedly said that he is comfortable with his goalies. Well I’m not.

Let’s hope Burke is just blowing a lot of smoke.

New Maple Leaf assistant coaches set off a new round of speculation

GM Brian Burke announced that assistant coaches Keith Acton and Tim Hunter have not been retained, and that former New York Islanders Coach Scott Gordon and former Northeastern University coach Greg Cronin have been added to the staff.

There is much speculation on how to read this surprise move. I have a number of theories but they could all wrong.

1, Since Ron Wilson's contact runs out in June 2012 there is considerable speculation that Gordon and Cronin are being groomed to one day take over. It is being suggested by some that Burke did all the hiring and firing on this one.

2. Since the Maple Leaf powerplay and penalty killing are so weak, one theory has it that Acton and Hunter too the fall for this one.

3. Cronin and Gordon are friend of Wilson's so their hiring could be construed to be that Wilson is very secure.

4. This was your classic shuffling of chairs on the deck of the Titanic which means read in nothing.

5. Since both Cronin and Gordon are Americans, there is a theory that Burke and Wilson are attempting to turn the entire franchise over to the Yankees.

These theories may be all wrong. But one thing we do know is that Burke is in no hurry to offer an extension to Wilson. Another slow start will land Wilson in the unemployment line.

Maple Leafs improve to 120th out of 122 pro teams in ESPN ranking

Yes ladies and gentlemen the Toronto Maple Leaf franchise is on the move. The Leafs have move up from 121st to 120th in ESPN's annual ranking of pro sports teams. This is their 9th year doing the ranking which does not just measure success but measures how much MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL franchises give back to the fans in exchange for all the time, money and emotion the fans invest in them. In other words they look at value for money which confirms what we all know - Leaf fans are continually being ripped off.

Only the Washington Redskins and Cincinnati Bengals ranked below the Leafs. The top raked team was the Green Bay Packers and the top hockey team wha the Tampa Bay Lightning (ranked 2nd)

Here are the categories that make up the ranking and how the Maple Leafs rank in each one:

Bang For The Buck: Wins during the past three years (regular season plus postseason) per revenues directly from fans, adjusted for league schedules. No surprise Maple Leafs rank 122.

Fan Relations: Openness and consideration toward fans by players, coaches and management. With all the talking that Brian Burke does the Leafs rank just 103.

Ownership: Honesty and loyalty to core players and local community. Teachers rank just 94. You wonder what it would be if they weren't holding the free exhibition game.

Affordability: Price of tickets, parking and concessions. Maple Leafs rank 122 - worse than the Yankees, Red Sox and Cowboys.

Stadium Experience: Quality of arena and game-day promotions as well as friendliness of environment. Maple Leafs rank 100.

Players: Effort on the field and likability off it. Leaf players rank 105.

Coaching: Strength of on-field leadership. Looks like Ron Wilson isn't loved. He ranks 111.

Title Track: Championships already won or expected in the lifetime of current fans. 44 years and counting. We rank 110.

This is how the Maple Leafs have ranked in the 9 years.

2011 - 120
2010 - 121
2009 - 120
2008 - 121
2007 - 99
2006 - no ranking due to lockout
2005 - no ranking due to lockout
2004- 88
2003 - 65

Why Boston won the Stanley Cup

Most people are talking about how Vancouver lost the Stanley Cup but hardly anyone is talking about how Boston won the Cup. The Canucks did not choke. They were beaten by a better team.

To be honest few people were talking about the Bruins winning the Stanley Cup at the start of the season after their dramatic collapse against the Flyers in the 2010 playoffs. The Bruins became one of the few teams in playoff history to go up by the three games in a series and then go on to lose the series. The perspective didn't change very much at the start of the playoffs outside of Bruin fans. In fact, the Bruins dropped the first 2 games at home to Montreal and people were already writing eulogies.

However, the Bruins have shown amazing resiliency this year following a team set back. When Marc Savard was lost for the season they continued to find offense. GM Peter Chiarelli had wisely picked up Nathan Horton over the off season to provide more scoring and he thrived in Boston. Chiarelli had added considerable depth to the line up at the trading deadline which helped the Bruins go deep in the playoffs.

Last season Tim Thomas had lost his starting job because of a hip injury after winning the Vezina but bounced back this season and is a leading contender for the Vezina again after winning the Conn Smythe. Thomas and Zdeno Chara are obviously the key players on this team. In fact where the Canucks are lacking is the shut down defenseman like Chara. Although Vancouver has an excellent defense and a great goalie that matches up well against Thomas, there is no one in their line up comparable to Chara. What many people do not remember is that Chara was out of the Boston line up in those first two games against Montreal because of dehydration. When he returned the Bruins went on a 8 game win streak which carried them into the Conference finals.

Chara who is not only the tallest player in the league but one of the most fit, was able to shut down each team's number one line on their march to the Cup. Against Montreal he shut down Plekanec, Cammalleri and Gionta. Against Philadelphia it was Briere, Giroux and van Riemsdyk. Against Tampa Bay it was Lecavalier, St. Louis and Stamkos. Then against Vancouver he totally shut down the Sedins and Burrows. Meanwhile Boston was able to get scoring from throughout their line up. When Krejic, Lucic and Horton couldn't then guys like Recchi, Peverley, Marchand and Kelly chipped in. The team has the size to wear you down and the speed to get by you. It was a total team effort.

But at the end of the day it's hard to beat a team that got the type of goaltending provided by Tim Thomas. Giving up only 8 goals in the finals underscored his value to the team and why he was likely a unanimous pick for the Conn Smythe. He stopped an incredible 201 out of 209 shots in the finals and finished with a GAA of 1.98 and a save percentage of .940 for the playoffs. Roberto Luongo foolishly made some unwise and classless comments about Thomas after game 5. As if Thomas needed any more incentive to carry his team to victory.

OK, we've determined that Roberto Luongo does not like playing in Boston

With a 8.04 goals against and .772 save percentage, must be eager to get back to Vancouver.

Maple Leafs are now set for goalies

I understand the Maple Leafs have wisely locked up James Reimer for the next 3 years at about $1.8 million per season - very cap friendly. They still have Jonas Gustavvson on contract which means the two Scandinavian goalies will make up the Leafs' goaltending tandem for 2011-12.

Reimer's rise to starting goaltender in the NHL has been remarkable. He started last season in 4th spot in the Leafs' depth chart for goalies behind everyone but Ben Scrivens. First he beat out Jussi Rynnas for the starting goalie job with the Marlies. Then he did the same thing with J-S Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson.

So although he has only played a half season he still won 20 games. Based on his brief stay in the NHL he has earned the spot on the NHL team,

What worries me is Gustavsson as the back up. In his two seasons with the Leafs he has not been able to stay healthy or maintain his cool. I can't see him staying health for an entire season. Considering his frequent visits to the disabled list, I can't see him staying health for the entire season. But what concerns me more is his tendency to get frustrated and lose his cool. Stick manufacturers may enjoy watching smash his goalie sticks on the crossbars but his coach does not. When Gustavsson is not game ready, the Leafs will need a veteran goalie playing in the minors who can step in. Someone like Scott Clemmenson. Look for Brian Burke to sign a veteran goalie as his 5th goalie and to provide some insurance.



There is some risk that Reimer may come down with the sophomore jinx. But the risk is low considering his modest contract. The Leafs took a much bigger risk when the took on Giguere's massive contract when he was clearly in a decline.

Johnny Canuck will prevail

Vancouver has got Stanley Cup fever

The video belows is shot in downtown core of Vancouver as people react to Maxim Lapierre's 3rd period goal to give the Canucks an all-important lead in game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. You can't see anything but you certainly here the sounds. It starts in eerie silence as an entire city is on pins and needles.

The Stanley Cup is onroute to Boston

I returned from vacations this week to catch game 5 of the Cup finals. I understand it resembled games 1 and 2 while the Bruins led by Tim Thomas embarrassed the Canucks in Boston in games 3 and 4. Although the series will likely go the full 7, the NHL will polishing up the Cup for Sunday in the event the Canucks can actually beat the Bruins on their home ice. My observations on a series that I have largely missed:

• The Canucks could easily be behind or have already lost this series. Any of the 3 wins could have gone the other way. But a 1-0 squeaker is no different than a 8-1 blow out. They both count as one win and the Canucks need just one more.
• Win or lose Tim Thomas is a lock for the Conn Smythe trophy. If the Canucks win the Stanley Cup then Thomas will be the 6th player from the losing team to win the award. The others were Roger Crozier (1966), Glenn Hall (1968), Reggie Leach (1976), Ron Hextall (1987), and J-S Giguere (2003). All but one were goalies.
• It seems in each series Vancouver looks like it is about to come off the wheels and then gets back on track. At the same time it looks like Roberto Luongo has become unglued and then bounces back with a shut out. There is certainly enough resiliency in both line ups.
• Although I've only seen game 5, my impression from reports is that the quality of the hockey has slipped this round which is a common occurrence. Final rounds tend to be very chippy and tight checking. As well, everyone is banged up and the skating suffers. Though I understand the animosity level is high.
• The guys who got the Canucks to the finals namely the Sedins have not been scoring at all. It's hard to believe that Vancouver has won 3 games without the help of their big line. But of course they have only scored 6 goals in those 5 games.
• I'm still going with Vancouver to win the series.

Can't wait for game 6.