Long-term contracts for UFA make no sense

Do you want to know the real reason why NHL teams will regret almost all long-term contracts they sign with unrestricted free agents?  Well because they are committing to players who in most cases have already reached their peak.  That's correct, it is likely that at 28 Ilya Kovalcuk has already had his most productive years. 

I looked at 25 NHL star players who have either recently retired or at the end of their careers and determined what their best season was.  It worked out that this sample of 25 players peaked on average at the age of 25.5.  In fact, 13 out of the 25 players peaked between the ages of 23 and 25.  The youngest were Mats Sundin and Paul Kariya who had their most productive season at 21.  The oldest was Daniel Alfredsson at 33.

 So Jonathan Toews, Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby are just hitting their best years.  However, Marian Gaborik, Marian Hossa, Ilya Kovakchuk and Martin Havlat have likely seen their best years.

Here is how the 25 players broke down:

Paul Kariya - 21
Mats Sundin - 21
Teemu Selanne - 22
Steve Yzerman - 23
Mike Modano - 23
Rod Brindamour - 23
Jeremy Roenick - 23
Keith Tkachuk - 23
Jaromir Jagr - 23
Joe Nieuwendyk - 23
Mark Recchi - 24
Patrick Elias - 24
Sergei Federov - 24
Peter Forsberg - 25
Doug Weight - 25
Brendan Shanahan - 25
Joe Sakic - 26
Brett Hull - 26
Pavel Demitra - 28
Markus Naslund - 29
Bil Guerin - 30
Jerome Iginla - 30\
Martin St. Louis - 31
Ron Francis - 32
Daniel Alfredsson - 33