The Maple Leafs have had dramatic back-to-back wins against two of the top teams in the East. The wins have moved them up to 12th in the East and 7 points out of the last playoff spots. So with 56 games still to play, aren’t they playoff contenders? Nope!
Their situation is really no different than last season. The Leafs have dug themselves a huge hole with their early season losses. Unfortunately that hole is just too large to pull them from. Realistically you need between 88 and 94 points to make the playoffs. If you choose the midpoint, 91 points that would require that the Leafs win 33.5 games over their remaining 56 games which is a winning percentage of 59.8%. Only 4 teams in the East had a winning percentage of 59.8% or more – Washington, New Jersey. Buffalo and Pittsburgh.
Last season, the Leafs’ winning percentage was 45.1% and over the first 26 games of this season it was slightly higher at 46.2%. Without significant personnel changes I just can’t see how you suddenly go from one of the weakest teams to one of the strongest. It defies logic.
So since this season is already a write-off, the organization would be better off thinking strategically toward next season and beyond. Ken Holland never seems to have to rebuild the Red Wings. Detroit seems to be able to maintain itself as a contender each season while working in youngsters each season.
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