Saturday, July 10, 2010

Ilya Kovalchuk: the unwanted star

It is now day 10 into free agency and Ilya Kovalchuk is sitting at home spinning his wheels.  Unlike past seasons when the top free agents were snapped up minutes after midnight on July 1, the stud pick for 2010 remains unsigned. Has he overpriced himself? Are there other issues at work here?  Afterall what NHL team couldn't use a guaranteed 40-50 goal scorer in their lineup?

To date his best offers have come from the Atlanta Thrashers (before his trade to New Jersey) and SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL.  And the Atlanta offer is no longer available.  Kovalchuk doesn't seem to want to go to the KHL and the only two NHL bidders, New Jersey and Los Angeles, don't want to meet his price which is likely $100 million over 10 years.

Another factor contributing to his indecision is that he has two agents.  Because Kovalchuk has an American agent, Jay Grossman, and a Russian agent, Yuriy Nikolaev. Grossman is pushing him to sign with an NHL team while Nikolaev wants him to sign with the KHL.  The Kings will pay him $84 million over 13 years which is far less than the $102 million over 12 years that he left on the table in Atlanta.

It's not that NHL teams don't have cap space for him, it's just that they are concerned what a large contract like this will do to their lineup in the future.  Look at what happened to Chicago.  For three straight season they spent money on free agents - Brian Campbell, Marian Hossa and Cristobal Huet.  Because of those contracts, the Hawks have had to shed players this summer to accomodate their young stars - Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith.  Those contracts cannot be moved.  Chicago has tried. So tying up $10 million a year in Kovalchuk will make it difficult for a team to retain its young stars.

The other issue is whether anyone considers Kovalchuk to be a franchise player.  He is a gifted scorer but he has yet to carry a team into the playoffs or to win a playoff series or two.  Does he make the other players around him better?  Not really. This is not Alex Ovechkin who can hit, play defense and set up linemates. He may be $7-$8 million player at best. So if his goal is make the most money then he better ship off to Russia.  The free agency money may soon disappear so if it's about winning then he should sign real quick.

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