Are the Maple Leafs good enough to make the playoffs?

There have been so many new bodies added to the Leafs over the past 12 months that it is next to impossible to predict what this team will do. On paper it doesn’t appear to be strong enough to make the playoffs but then everyone was convinced the Blue Jays wouldn’t win 70 games this season. Here is my list of positives and negatives going into the season.

Positive – no Vesa Toskala

No longer having Toskala on their roster has to be the biggest positive this season. Last season he was an anchor that dragged the Leafs to the bottom of the NHL standings. J.S. Giguere may no longer be the same goalie that won the Conn Smythe Trophy a few years ago but he is considerably better than Toskala.

Negative – Tomas Kaberle non-trade

The biggest non-event of the NHL offseason was the trade that never happened. No one really knows what happened here but obviously Brian Burke had overpriced his one tradable commodity. I have no problem with Kaberle. You know what you get here. The negative component here is that the trade was supposed to fill a gaping hole at centre for the Leafs. So the Leafs start the season with likely the weakest core of players at this position in the entire NHL.

Positive – no more blue and white disease

Brian Burke has stated that when he arrived in Toronto, there existed a level of complacency (remember the Muskoka Five) that he was unable to shake off even when players were publicly called out. We all know what he was talking about. Players received too much attention for accomplishing so little. So he got rid of most of those players. There only six players remaining that were here before Burke arrived and only one (Kaberle) played a game for the Leafs before Cliff Fletcher stepped in as interm GM. That’s what I call cleaning the deck. The current roster is comprised of hungry, young players who are eager to impress.

Negative – Nazem Kadri

I think he will be fine in the long-term. However, there was this unrealistic expectation that he would jump right from Junior hockey to centring the first or second line for the Leafs. It’s that type of sense of entitlement created by fans, management and the media that creates blue and white disease. If Burke wants to avoid infecting his young centre, he will have to send him to the Marlies to start the season.

Positive – Phil Kessel

In Phil Kessel the Leafs have a legitimate scoring threat. Despite no training camp, being out of shape and missing the first 12 games of last season, he still managed to score 30 goals. This year he is much more ready to go and has the potential to score 40 goals.

Negative – top 6 forwards

Brian Burke has stressed the need to have skilled players on the top two lines. He doesn’t appear to be there yet. Kessel, Kulemin, and Versteeg appear to be top 6 forwards. Perhaps Bozak is one as well. Beyond that you can’t convince me that any of the remaining forwards would be able to make the top 6 of a good NHL team. Just not enough secondary scoring.

Positive – truculence

This team has added enough physical players to prevent any team from targeting their skill players. In particular I like the 4^th line with Brown, Hanson and Orr. And if any of these forwards falter, there are players like Jay Rosehill, Brayden Irwin and Marcel Mueller quite eager to step in. And each defense pair has a banger – Phaneuf, Komisarek and Schenn.

Negative – penalty killing

Last year’s team had the worst penalty killing in the league at an abysmal rate of 74.7%. They had one of lowest number of penalties to kill off but gave up the most goals. Now goaltending plays a significant role in penalty killing success but you can’t pin this dog on just the goalies. Having Sjostrom in the lineup will help. Versteeg is also a pretty good penalty killer. But until we see significant improvement this continues to be a major weakness.

Positive – defense

Solid veterans to fill the top two defensive pairings make defense a strength on this team. However, this group is slightly overrated. All four have a history of too many turnovers. They are also not the quickest foursome so expect them to get burned on occasion.

Negative – powerplay

Not only was the penalty killing worst in the league last season but so was the powerplay. You can’t pin this one on the goalies. The powerplay unit will essentially be the same and so is the coaching staff. I just don’t see a vast improvement here. At the point you have a defenseman that never shoots and one that will only shoots. This unit is incredibly predictable and easy to defend against. Kessel will get his share of powerplay goals but there may not be enough secondary scoring.

Positive – team speed

This team has a lot of youth and speed which will pressure opposition defenses and create plenty of scoring opportunities. However if the forward are unable to finish their plays then the offense will have its problems.

Negative – salary cap

For a young team the Leafs surprisingly have some cap problems. That’s because they have their share of overpaid players including Giguere, Phanuef Finger and Komisarek. Brian Burke likes to characterize himself as possessing integrity which means he will not attempt to circumvent the cap. Unfortunately, this essentially puts him at a disadvantage relative to fellow GMs who for the most part try like heck to beat the cap. So it seems Burke will not bury Finger’s contract in the minors though we shall see if he holds his word. This increases the likelihood that Kadri and his $1.7 million cap hit will start the season in the minors.