Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Do you believe the Leafs can win 70% of their remaining games?

Hope springs up following every Maple Leaf winning streak no matter how short it lasts. The most recent streak in which the Leafs have won 4 out of 5 games is no different. Once again fans are looking at the standings noting how close the Leafs are to the 8th place Hurricanes.

At the time of writing this post the Leafs were just 8 points behind 8th place. If it were just a matter of making up the 8 points then I would say at least they have a shot. But that rationale doesn't hold out in a 15 team division. Catching Carolina is meaningless if the Leafs don't catch enough of the other teams ahead of them in the standings.

Based on previous seasons, the 8th place team requires from 88 to 93 points to make the playoffs. If you take the mid point, 90 points, that would mean the Leafs would need another 39 points in their remaining 28 games. That is a winning percent of 70%.

So if you believe the Leafs can finish the season with 90 points then you would also believe the Leafs are in a playoff race. But then you probably also believe in Santa Clause.

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